Horse racing is one of the oldest and most popular sports in the world, and it’s no surprise that many people have a favourite horse they like to follow. But how often do these favourites actually win the race? In this article, we’ll take a look at the statistics to see what percentage of favourite horses win.
Types of Favourite Horses
When it comes to favourite horses, there are two types: the public favourite and the bookmaker’s favourite. The public favourite is the most popular horse amongst the general public, while the bookmaker’s favourite is the horse that bookmakers have the highest odds on to win.
Factors Affecting Win Rate
A variety of factors can affect a horse’s win rate, such as the type of track, the horse’s form, the jockey’s experience, and the field size. All of these can have an impact on the outcome of a race, and can make it more or less likely for a favourite horse to win.
Win Rates of Favourite Horses
Overall, the win rate of favourite horses is quite high. Studies have found that favourites win around 32-35% of all races. This is quite impressive, considering there are usually a large number of horses competing in each race.
Bookmaker’s Favourites
When it comes to the bookmaker’s favourite, the win rate is slightly higher. Studies have found that the bookmaker’s favourite wins around 37-40% of all races. This is likely due to the fact that bookmakers have access to more information than the general public, and are better able to make an informed decision when it comes to selecting the most likely winner.
Public Favourites
When it comes to the public favourite, the win rate is slightly lower than that of the bookmaker’s favourite. Studies have found that the public favourite wins around 28-31% of all races. This is likely due to the fact that the public is basing its decision on less information than the bookmakers, and is more likely to be swayed by emotion when selecting a horse.
Factors Impacting Win Rate
A variety of factors can affect the win rate of favourite horses, such as the type of track, the horse’s form, the jockey’s experience, and the field size. For example, on dirt tracks, favourites tend to have an edge over the other horses, while on turf tracks the advantage is less pronounced. Horses with good form tend to have a higher win rate than those with poor form, while experienced jockeys tend to have a better win rate than those with less experience. Finally, the larger the field size, the lower the favourite’s win rate tends to be.
Conclusion
Overall, the win rate of favourite horses is quite high, with studies finding that favourites win around 32-40% of all races. This is likely due to the fact that bookmakers and the public both have access to more information than the other horses in the race, and are more likely to correctly pick the most likely winner. Of course, a variety of factors can affect the win rate of a favourite horse, such as the type of track, the horse’s form, the jockey’s experience, and the field size. However, despite these factors, the win rate of favourites remains quite high.